Multiple Factors Support Intraday Surge in BC Copper SHFE Copper BC Copper Price Spread Continues to Be Inverted and Widens [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract opened at 69,780 yuan/mt and closed higher during the day. In the night session, the BC copper initially dropped to 69,720 yuan/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually rose. After the daytime opening, copper prices continued to climb, reaching a high of 70,880 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 70,710 yuan/mt, with a gain of 1.29%. Open interest reached 3,785 lots, down 187 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume was 3,291 lots. On the macro front, on Friday, Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium were cautious; although he did not commit to an interest rate cut, he reinforced market expectations for a September rate cut and also mentioned accumulating employment risks and persistent inflation pressures. After his speech, the US dollar index saw its largest single-day decline since early August, which was bullish for copper prices. Domestically, recent State Council meetings and the national trade-in policy promotion meeting have clarified relevant deployments, signaling increased policy efforts. Fundamentally, the scale of imported supply is limited, with only some domestic sources entering the market, leading to a tight supply landscape. On the demand side, as month-end approaches, downstream enterprises generally face financial pressure, and with copper prices fluctuating at highs, this has dampened procurement sentiment. Inventory-wise, as of August 25, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories decreased by 8,700 mt to 123,000 mt compared to the previous Thursday.

The SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 79,690 yuan/mt. If the BC copper 2509 contract is 70,710 yuan/mt, its post-tax price would be 79,902 yuan/mt, resulting in a price difference of -212 between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper contract, maintaining an inverted spread that widened from the previous day.